The present study explores opportunities and challenges for intra- and inter-regional trade in the Central and South Asia areas by analyzing a wide range of channels impacting trade. Trade enhancing channels are divided into two broad categories. The first set refers to disaggregated or product-level characterizations of trade affecting competitiveness and complementarities between trading partners within and between the regions. The second refers to price, non-price and structural determinants that tend to affect all products traded between countries. The analysis also includes a gravity model to gauge the effect of economic growth, distance and price, non-price and structural determinants of regional trade.

Laos benefits from the ASEAN-India Free Trade Agreement in Goods (AIFTA) by gaining preferential access to the large Indian market. Under the Agreement, India commits to eliminating customs duties on imports for 90% of its tariff lines under two separate lists: one being completed by the end of 2013; the other, by end-of-2016. For products on the sensitive list, India’s tariffs are being reduced to no more than 5% by the end of 2016. For its part, Laos has until 2021 to eliminate tariffs on its normal and sensitive tracks.

There are two normal tracks in the AIFTA: (a) Tariff lines in Normal Track 1 are eliminated for India in 2013 and for Laos in 2018; (b) Tariff lines in Normal Track 2 are eliminated for India in 2016 and for Laos in 2018. For products on the sensitive list, India commits to lowering tariffs above 5% to no more than 5% by 2016; Laos has until 2021 to apply those tariff reductions. For tariffs equal to 5%, the tariff can be maintained at the same rate for up to 50 tariff lines by both countries.

This guide shows how to determine (a) whether there are benefits to using the AIFTA, and (b) whether a particular product being exported from Laos is eligible for a preferential rate. It is important to check these two conditions in order to avoid spending time and money in applying for the preferential rate if a product is already subject to a low customs duty outside the AIFTA.

Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.

The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.

Regional integration analysis to promote trade among the Member States of the Bay of Bengal Initiatives for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC).