Prepared Azerbaijan's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), Country Poverty Analyses (CPA), and results-oriented country strategy and programming (CSP) report.
Overall, the outcome of USAID/Egypt’s trade-related assistance since 1992 is rated as satisfactory, with specific strengths identified as the consistency of USAID/Egypt’s program with the Government’s development strategy; the sustainability of USAID/Egypt’s overall assistance; USAID/Egypt’s strong support for policy and regulatory reforms; the leading role of USAID in supporting a coherent strategy for the GOE; flexibility and adaptability of its programs; stakeholder ownership of USAID assistance; the recent increase in effectiveness of capacity building efforts; the generally successful coordination of projects with development partners; outcomes generally having been met or exceeded based on USAID/Egypt’s target benchmarks; implementation of second generation reforms and trade facilitation measures; trade policy and customs reform programs and projects being well-integrated into economy-wide development initiatives; and USAID/Egypt’s development assistance output in trade-related activities having scored well during the period under review. Some of the areas were programs and projects could be improved upon relate to the need to more clearly defined their outcomes and impact objectives within USAID/Egypt’s strategic objectives; possibly bolstering its effectiveness in implementing trade policy reforms through the policy-based cash transfer programs; more clearly distinguishing between output and impact benchmarks when reviewing performance and including benchmarks that better reflect changes in trade control measures; improving its support for understanding the impact of WTO and other international commitments by Egypt, before those commitments are made; ensuring continuity of activities between its program sequencing activities; and providing for systematic assessments of trade capacity building effectiveness in its projects. These findings pointed to lessons for future activities that are elaborated upon in the report.
The present CAPE study follows the standard evaluation framework used by the ADB’s Operations Evaluation Department (OED) to assess the performance of country assistance programs, as well as individual projects and technical assistance (TAs) after completion. It uses six well-know evaluation criteria. The first three are used to assess project outcomes in the CAPs and refer to (i) relevance, (ii) efficacy, and (iii) efficiency. The other three assess project impact in terms of (i) socio-economic impact, (ii) institutional development impact, and (iii) sustainability. The performance of the COS can only be assessed in terms of the relevance. From these results, the study derives the key strengths and opportunities, as well as lessons learned from the ADB’s operations in the last 20 years, with a view to drawing implications for the future strategy and programs, including the CSP scheduled for 2005.
Economic analysis of sources of growth from product and expenditure sides; and macro-modeling based on RMSM-X, adapted to a dynamic model using (a) econometric estimates, (b) growth decomposition analysis based on growth-accounting framework, and (c) total factor productivity (TFP) analysis.
Macro-model building to support ADB planning and programming activities.
WTO impact assessment of Egypt's tariff reforms and their impact on macro-economy, based on both econometric modeling techniques and CGE model
Training for trade capacity building of State Bank of Vietnam staff for the design and implementation of trade and macroeconomic models.
Prepared a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances of non-industrialized countries in OECD Economic Outlook
Training of government officials in macroeconomic modeling project under fixed and flexible exchange rate systems.
Managed team of international economists supporting IDB lending operations, and coordinated activities in trade, finance and macroeconomics. Designed international trade policy models to quantitatively assess impact of multilateral trade liberalization, free trade areas and WTO negotiations. Led innovative research into international trade issues, project appraisal, Latin America's socioeconomic development, industrialization, poverty alleviation, and other leading topics in development economics.