Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.
The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.
Sustainability of the Asian growth model, delinking possibilities, and policy prescriptions.
The objective of this study is to provide a preliminary analysis on a range of CET options that could be adopted by ASEAN and to quantitatively assess their implications for each ASEAN member state and the region as a whole. The results of the study are intended to assist the ASEAN Secretariat and the ASEAN member states in considering options under deliberations by the CCCA, which will eventually be presented to the Senior Economic Officials Meeting (SEOM) for its deliberation on the application of a CET as a long term objective of economic integration in ASEAN.
We compare the welfare effects of ASEAN FTAs relative to pre-CET and post-CET rates. While the static effects are unlikely to be large since, in the end, the final trade-weighted average tariff is the same, the dynamic effects could be significant and give rise to questions about revenue compensations prior to joining new FTAs. The welfare effects of the two sequencing paths can vary considerably. Implementation of a customs union and an FTA can also move forward simultaneously since the implementation of a customs union may be phased and FTA negotiations initiated during that time. In those cases, the existence of customs union commitments by the ASEAN member states can be considered as preceding the FTA, even though the customs union commitments are not fully implemented.
Prepared Azerbaijan's Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP), Country Poverty Analyses (CPA), and results-oriented country strategy and programming (CSP) report.
Presented quantitative methodologies for tax revenue forecasting to Government of Vietnam's tax department in Ministry of Finance.
WTO accession impact assessments effects on product and sector-specific goods and service, based on econometric modeling techniques
Economic analysis of sources of growth from product and expenditure sides; and macro-modeling based on RMSM-X, adapted to a dynamic model using (a) econometric estimates, (b) growth decomposition analysis based on growth-accounting framework, and (c) total factor productivity (TFP) analysis.
Trade capacity building information system for Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) to develop detailed trade database of member countries, including interactive online database in ADB website.
Trade-related capacity building for ACP Africa member countries on effects of donor aid policies based on export promotion policies, value chains, targeted industry strategies, investment incentive structures.
Trade-related poverty analysis quantitatively assessing impact of Cambodia's macroeconomic policies on poverty reduction for sustainable development