Special economic zone (SEZ) evaluation of implementation practices at provincial level, and national policy and regulatory framework.

The report offers a comprehensive analysis and recommendations for the formulation of a new trade support initiative, as a continuation phase of the current Trade Development Facility (TDF). It is based on the TDF lessons learned to date, the actionable recommendations of the DTIS Update for the 7th NSEDP and the National Export Strategy (NES), and meetings conducted under the Joint TDF/EIF Implementation Support Mission on November 8-18, 2011. The new project will support implementation of the DTIS Update and its Action Matrix, which will in turn contribute to the implementation of the Government’s trade strategy linked to the 7th National Social and Economic Development Plan (NSEDP) covering 2011‐2015. It will also provide trade-related assistance for capacity building and technical assistance for trade-related policy reforms linked to the Poverty Reduction Support Operation (PRSO), and it will help the Trade and Private Sector Working Group of the Round Table Process for aid effectiveness to build consensus about development priorities and improve aid coordination as set out in the Vientiane Declaration Country Action Plan.

Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.

The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.

PRSO actions have supported trade and PSD reforms through: (i) close working relations between donors and line ministries, which have helped foster government ownership; (ii) good collaboration between donors financing PRSO; (iii) disseminating information about program activities to donors not financing the PRSO; (iv) adapting policy actions to changing circumstances for Government and the economy at large during the programmatic series; and (v) availability of TA resources through the TDF and SME Promotion and Development Office (SMEPDO) where needed. The program’s effectiveness has proven especially helpful in promoting inter-ministerial cooperation, and providing TA support for PRSO actions that have concurrently built staff capabilities in line ministries.

Sustainability of the Asian growth model, delinking possibilities, and policy prescriptions.

The evaluation assesses Multilateral Trade Assistance Projects (Multrap) in Cambodia and Lao People’s Democratic Republic (PDR) and derives lessons learned and recommendations for more effective future technical assistance operations. In early 2003 the European Commission (EC) signed financial agreements with the Royal Government of Cambodia (RGC) and the Government of Lao (GOL) to undertake Multrap projects in those countries, and it selected GTZ International Services to carry out the provisions of the projects through the Ministries of Commerce of the respective countries beginning in January 2004. The combined budget for the two Multrap projects was €2,872,528, with about two-thirds of the budget allocated to Cambodia and the remaining one-third to Lao PDR. In Cambodia the overall objective of the project was to assist the country in improving and putting into place conditions for sustaining economic growth, following its accession to the WTO. It was also to provide capacity development and support export diversification and trade facilitation. In Lao PDR the project had two distinct but interlinked areas of activity, those being assistance to the WTO accession process and institutional support to academic and government institutions in international trade issues, particularly as they related to the WTO.

Overall, the outcome of USAID/Egypt’s trade-related assistance since 1992 is rated as satisfactory, with specific strengths identified as the consistency of USAID/Egypt’s program with the Government’s development strategy; the sustainability of USAID/Egypt’s overall assistance; USAID/Egypt’s strong support for policy and regulatory reforms; the leading role of USAID in supporting a coherent strategy for the GOE; flexibility and adaptability of its programs; stakeholder ownership of USAID assistance; the recent increase in effectiveness of capacity building efforts; the generally successful coordination of projects with development partners; outcomes generally having been met or exceeded based on USAID/Egypt’s target benchmarks; implementation of second generation reforms and trade facilitation measures; trade policy and customs reform programs and projects being well-integrated into economy-wide development initiatives; and USAID/Egypt’s development assistance output in trade-related activities having scored well during the period under review. Some of the areas were programs and projects could be improved upon relate to the need to more clearly defined their outcomes and impact objectives within USAID/Egypt’s strategic objectives; possibly bolstering its effectiveness in implementing trade policy reforms through the policy-based cash transfer programs; more clearly distinguishing between output and impact benchmarks when reviewing performance and including benchmarks that better reflect changes in trade control measures; improving its support for understanding the impact of WTO and other international commitments by Egypt, before those commitments are made; ensuring continuity of activities between its program sequencing activities; and providing for systematic assessments of trade capacity building effectiveness in its projects. These findings pointed to lessons for future activities that are elaborated upon in the report.

Bilateral trade agreement impact assessment of Colombia with United States, based on disaggregated econometric model measuring welfare effects and employment and output impact of alternative tariff-reductions in sequencing FTA committments.

Evaluation of donor assistance to determine international competitiveness of major industries using alternative quantitative techniques, as part of global competitiveness survey, for Barbados, Belize, Dominican Republic, Guyana, Jamaica, St Lucia, St Vincent, and Trinidad and Tobago.

The PSA covers market access for traded goods, rules of origin, safeguard measures, dispute settlement, anti-dumping and countervailing duties, non-tariff barriers (NTBs) to trade, sanitary and phyto-sanitary measures, investment, land transportation, and the administration of the Agreement. Under its present provisions, it does not address either trade in services or customs administration and trade facilitation.

While the main focus of the negotiations are the enhancement of market access for goods traded between the two countries, there is also interest in joint production facilities that could provide Guatemalan businesses increased opportunities in the CARICOM market. For Belize the PSA could provide businesses with access to a market that has the relatively lower land transport costs than that of ocean freight costs associated with shipments to other markets, including that of other CARICOM member states. There is also an interest in reducing unregulated informal trade between the two countries, though the mechanisms though which this objective is to be achieved remains largely undefined.

The present CAPE study follows the standard evaluation framework used by the ADB’s Operations Evaluation Department (OED) to assess the performance of country assistance programs, as well as individual projects and technical assistance (TAs) after completion. It uses six well-know evaluation criteria. The first three are used to assess project outcomes in the CAPs and refer to (i) relevance, (ii) efficacy, and (iii) efficiency. The other three assess project impact in terms of (i) socio-economic impact, (ii) institutional development impact, and (iii) sustainability. The performance of the COS can only be assessed in terms of the relevance. From these results, the study derives the key strengths and opportunities, as well as lessons learned from the ADB’s operations in the last 20 years, with a view to drawing implications for the future strategy and programs, including the CSP scheduled for 2005.