Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.
The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.
Sustainability of the Asian growth model, delinking possibilities, and policy prescriptions.
Support for border town development along major economic corridors of Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) through value chain development, creation of business development centers, and identification of investment opportunities.
WTO impact assessment of Egypt's tariff reforms and their impact on macro-economy, based on both econometric modeling techniques and CGE model
In large measure the continued expansion of these markets in Asia and elsewhere will depend on the successful establishment of an orderly, rules-based multilateral system in the post-Uruguay Round era. Although the improved institutional order created by the Uruguay Round agreements initially facilitated the export-led drive of many Asian economies, it is now generally recognized that at least two additional factors are essential to the success of the outward-oriented growth strategy being pursued by many countries. The first is the widespread diffusion of technologies and knowledge accumulation that needs to accompany globalization if high economic growth rates are to be sustained through dynamic changes in the comparative advantages of the Asian economies. The other is the creation of a regulatory environment that extends well beyond the present trade-related multilateral system to encourage cross-border investments and technology transfers, promote imports of capital goods and improve access to foreign markets.
These issues were the subject of the seminar entitled The Multilateral Trading System: The Challenge 50 Years On, which took place in Geneva, Switzerland in April 1998 in association with the 31st Annual Meeting of the Board of Governors of the Asian Development Bank. This essay brings together the material from the proceedings of the seminar in examining the specific interests of the Asian economies in knowledge accumulation and the technological diffusion in global markets and production processes, and efforts to facilitate their transmission under the post-Uruguay Round negotiations.
The present essay begins by examining the underlying characteristics of the globalization phenomenon, and in particular those that apply to the developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank. It then examines both the traditional market-oriented issues emerging from the Uruguay Round agreements and the nontraditional trade-related issues of investment, competition and antitrust, labor standards, environmental protection and regional arrangements that were not included in the original GATT disciplines but that now represent major barriers to the globalization process. These regulatory issues and other factors underlying the potential impact of the globalization process on the transformation of the Asian economies have important implications for Bank operations, and they are highlighted at the end of the essay.
Regional integration and global trade linkages for ASEAN members based on transmissions from trade, exchange rates, prices, interest rates, intra-ASEAN linkages and extra-regional linkages
Training for trade capacity building of State Bank of Vietnam staff for the design and implementation of trade and macroeconomic models.
In Brunei-Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines - East Asean Growth Area. Vol. II. Manila: Asian Development Bank, 1997.
Prepared a consistent set of projections for output, employment, prices, fiscal and current account balances of non-industrialized countries in OECD Economic Outlook
Managed team of international economists supporting IDB lending operations, and coordinated activities in trade, finance and macroeconomics. Designed international trade policy models to quantitatively assess impact of multilateral trade liberalization, free trade areas and WTO negotiations. Led innovative research into international trade issues, project appraisal, Latin America's socioeconomic development, industrialization, poverty alleviation, and other leading topics in development economics.