This pre-feasibility study develops a practical and implementable program to develop the Sarawak (Malaysia)–West Kalimantan (Indonesia) border area (within a broad geographic context), based on specific industry value chains. It identifies concrete and high-impact projects that will advance implementation of an integrated border area development program for West Kalimantan. It maps the optimal configuration of Sarawak–West Kalimantan cross-border trade and investment in goods and services; and, concurrently, provides the design of a border area development plan for the two territories. As a pre-feasibility study, we examine a wide range of industry options and determine which projects are economically viable within the socioeconomic, institutional, and political context of Sarawak and West Kalimantan. We follow the same analytical approach as that for the pilot project study of North Kalimantan and Sabah, which serves as a high-profile demonstration pre-feasibility study for this and other border area development programs.

The present study explores opportunities and challenges for intra- and inter-regional trade in the Central and South Asia areas by analyzing a wide range of channels impacting trade. Trade enhancing channels are divided into two broad categories. The first set refers to disaggregated or product-level characterizations of trade affecting competitiveness and complementarities between trading partners within and between the regions. The second refers to price, non-price and structural determinants that tend to affect all products traded between countries. The analysis also includes a gravity model to gauge the effect of economic growth, distance and price, non-price and structural determinants of regional trade.

Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.

The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.

Sustainability of the Asian growth model, delinking possibilities, and policy prescriptions.

The objective of this study is to provide a preliminary analysis on a range of CET options that could be adopted by ASEAN and to quantitatively assess their implications for each ASEAN member state and the region as a whole. The results of the study are intended to assist the ASEAN Secretariat and the ASEAN member states in considering options under deliberations by the CCCA, which will eventually be presented to the Senior Economic Officials Meeting (SEOM) for its deliberation on the application of a CET as a long term objective of economic integration in ASEAN.

We compare the welfare effects of ASEAN FTAs relative to pre-CET and post-CET rates. While the static effects are unlikely to be large since, in the end, the final trade-weighted average tariff is the same, the dynamic effects could be significant and give rise to questions about revenue compensations prior to joining new FTAs. The welfare effects of the two sequencing paths can vary considerably. Implementation of a customs union and an FTA can also move forward simultaneously since the implementation of a customs union may be phased and FTA negotiations initiated during that time. In those cases, the existence of customs union commitments by the ASEAN member states can be considered as preceding the FTA, even though the customs union commitments are not fully implemented.

Presented quantitative methodologies for tax revenue forecasting to Government of Vietnam's tax department in Ministry of Finance.

Comprehensive quantitative analysis of Belize-Guatemala bilateral trade agreement, based on econometric modeling of bilateral trade flows.

Overall, the outcome of USAID/Egypt’s trade-related assistance since 1992 is rated as satisfactory, with specific strengths identified as the consistency of USAID/Egypt’s program with the Government’s development strategy; the sustainability of USAID/Egypt’s overall assistance; USAID/Egypt’s strong support for policy and regulatory reforms; the leading role of USAID in supporting a coherent strategy for the GOE; flexibility and adaptability of its programs; stakeholder ownership of USAID assistance; the recent increase in effectiveness of capacity building efforts; the generally successful coordination of projects with development partners; outcomes generally having been met or exceeded based on USAID/Egypt’s target benchmarks; implementation of second generation reforms and trade facilitation measures; trade policy and customs reform programs and projects being well-integrated into economy-wide development initiatives; and USAID/Egypt’s development assistance output in trade-related activities having scored well during the period under review. Some of the areas were programs and projects could be improved upon relate to the need to more clearly defined their outcomes and impact objectives within USAID/Egypt’s strategic objectives; possibly bolstering its effectiveness in implementing trade policy reforms through the policy-based cash transfer programs; more clearly distinguishing between output and impact benchmarks when reviewing performance and including benchmarks that better reflect changes in trade control measures; improving its support for understanding the impact of WTO and other international commitments by Egypt, before those commitments are made; ensuring continuity of activities between its program sequencing activities; and providing for systematic assessments of trade capacity building effectiveness in its projects. These findings pointed to lessons for future activities that are elaborated upon in the report.

Assessed Vietnam's opportunities for commercializing agriculture and identified key elements of strategy based on quantitative methods for measuring regional and international competitiveness of industries

Bilateral trade agreement impact assessment of Colombia with United States, based on disaggregated econometric model measuring welfare effects and employment and output impact of alternative tariff-reductions in sequencing FTA committments.