The present evaluation is the midterm assessment of EIF Tier 1. It aims to examine and provide feedback on
whether the project is performing well and moving towards the achievement of its objectives and targets. It
also identifies obstacles to performance and, where applicable, suggests remedial actions where the project
might not be on track. In this way, it provides justification for the extension of Tier 1 for an additional two
years. Finally, the evaluation serves as a possible input to any separate evaluation of the global EIF program
that may take place in the future.
Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.
The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.
Bilateral trade agreement impact assessment of Colombia with United States, based on disaggregated econometric model measuring welfare effects and employment and output impact of alternative tariff-reductions in sequencing FTA committments.
Economic analysis of sources of growth from product and expenditure sides; and macro-modeling based on RMSM-X, adapted to a dynamic model using (a) econometric estimates, (b) growth decomposition analysis based on growth-accounting framework, and (c) total factor productivity (TFP) analysis.
Trade-related capacity building for ACP Africa member countries on effects of donor aid policies based on export promotion policies, value chains, targeted industry strategies, investment incentive structures.
Managed team of international economists supporting IDB lending operations, and coordinated activities in trade, finance and macroeconomics. Designed international trade policy models to quantitatively assess impact of multilateral trade liberalization, free trade areas and WTO negotiations. Led innovative research into international trade issues, project appraisal, Latin America's socioeconomic development, industrialization, poverty alleviation, and other leading topics in development economics.