Proponents of the decoupling view argue that Asian economies now have more diversified export markets, and they also point to more robust domestic and intra-regional growth drivers that are independent of the US and other developed economies. China in particular has the potential to drive that intra-regional growth, a phenomenon that has already by exemplified by the emergence of its large trade and investments with East and Southeast Asia. There are, nonetheless, a large number of opponents to this view. Those who argue that decoupling is unlikely to occur point to the fact that intra-regional and extra-regional trade flows in Asia are largely made up of parts and components that eventually supply the United States and other developed economies. Reversing that pattern in Asia, they argue, would be neither feasible nor desirable.
The present study examines the empirical evidence underlying these arguments as a means of establishing some forwarding looking views about what options are available to the Asian economies. First, it demonstrates that the strong linkages both within Asia and between Asia and the United States and Europe have not waned in the last 25 years. Second, the study finds that there are significant downside risks for the recovery of growth in the United States and Europe. Thirdly, the types of goods produced in Asia as outsourcing for large enterprises is likely to incorporate more second-generation technology that could increasingly promote intra-regional production networks. Another finding of the study is that stock market indicators in Asia are highly correlated with the major financial centers in the United States and Europe. Finally, pegged and managed exchange rates will likely continue to form part of the policy tools used in most Asian economies, notwithstanding the lessons from the Asian financial crisis.
Presented quantitative methodologies for tax revenue forecasting to Government of Vietnam's tax department in Ministry of Finance.
The present CAPE study follows the standard evaluation framework used by the ADB’s Operations Evaluation Department (OED) to assess the performance of country assistance programs, as well as individual projects and technical assistance (TAs) after completion. It uses six well-know evaluation criteria. The first three are used to assess project outcomes in the CAPs and refer to (i) relevance, (ii) efficacy, and (iii) efficiency. The other three assess project impact in terms of (i) socio-economic impact, (ii) institutional development impact, and (iii) sustainability. The performance of the COS can only be assessed in terms of the relevance. From these results, the study derives the key strengths and opportunities, as well as lessons learned from the ADB’s operations in the last 20 years, with a view to drawing implications for the future strategy and programs, including the CSP scheduled for 2005.
Economic analysis of sources of growth from product and expenditure sides; and macro-modeling based on RMSM-X, adapted to a dynamic model using (a) econometric estimates, (b) growth decomposition analysis based on growth-accounting framework, and (c) total factor productivity (TFP) analysis.
Trade-related capacity building for ACP Africa member countries on effects of donor aid policies based on export promotion policies, value chains, targeted industry strategies, investment incentive structures.
Trade-related poverty analysis quantitatively assessing impact of Cambodia's macroeconomic policies on poverty reduction for sustainable development
Macro-model building to support ADB planning and programming activities.
WTO impact assessment for Government Procurement Agreement (GPA) in Jordon's key industries, based on econometric modeling and quantitative modeling methods for evaluating alternative offers.
WTO impact assessment of Egypt's tariff reforms and their impact on macro-economy, based on both econometric modeling techniques and CGE model
Training for trade capacity building of State Bank of Vietnam staff for the design and implementation of trade and macroeconomic models.